Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016

The three aftershock sequences that occurred in Al Hoceima, Morocco, May 1994 (Mw 6.0), February 2004 6.4) and January 2016 6.3) were stochastically modeled to investigate their temporal energetic behavior. A form of the restricted trigger model known as epidemic type sequence (RETAS) was used for analysis selected series. best-determined fit models each differ based on Akaike information criteria. revealed discrepancies suggest that, although activated fault systems are close (within 10 20 km), stress regimes change shift across In addition, a stochastic presented study strain release following specific strong earthquake. This constructed using compound Poisson process depicted progression during sequence. proposed then applied data. After RETAS evaluate behavior decay rate, best-fit obtained integrated into strain-release analysis. By detecting potential disparities between observed data model, allows more comprehensive examination. Furthermore, comparing expected cumulative energy numbers some variations at start all sequences. demonstrates significant clusters occur frequently shortly after mainshock rather than if they assumed randomly.